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Is La Nina on the way?

In today’s webinar (recording at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lWnEtfS6gVk&feature=youtu.be) on climate conditions in the ACF river basin in Georgia, Alabama, and Florida, David Zierden, the Florida State Climatologist, discussed some recent changes in the temperature profile of the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Over the last month, the ocean temperature distribution has started to look much more like a La Nina pattern than in previous weeks, with cooler temperatures now appearing across much of the equatorial ocean. Most of the models which predict the likelihood of El Nino, La Nina or neutral conditions are continuing to favor neutral conditions for the next few months, but as David pointed out, we could see some significant changes in the next outlook which comes out in a couple of weeks. If La Nina does occur, that would increase the likelihood of an active tropical season expected in the Atlantic basin this year. We’ll be watching carefully to see how this situation evolves. You can view the latest ENSO discussion slides released today at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf