The latest ENSO outlook was released today by NOAA. The outlook says that there is a 55 percent chance that neutral ENSO conditions will last through summer. By late fall there is an almost even chance of neutral or La Nina conditions occurring, with a much smaller chance of an El Nino. You can read more here. This time of year the phase has limited impact on the local climate, but as we enter the Atlantic tropical season both neutral and La Nina years are associated with active Atlantic seasons, so we can look forward to another year of more numerous than average storms, although we don’t know where they would be likely to go and even if they would make landfall at all.
