Unless you’ve been hiding under a rock, you can’t help but have noticed the unusually warm spring we are experiencing in the Southeast so far this year (and even then, the rock would probably be getting warm!).  Observations from the National Phenology Network indicate that we are running 3-4 weeks ahead of normal based on plant growth due to the warmth.  In fact, every month for the last year has been above normal in temperature, and the predictions from the Climate Prediction Center for the next 12 months don’t show much chance for a change, although those predictions are based on statistics, so there is always a chance shifting weather patterns will bring us back to a colder climate.  The time period around March 3-8 in particular looks like it will bring back colder air to most of the region, and it would not surprise me to see some frost, especially in low-lying and northern locations.

Farmers are also watching the current drought conditions carefully.  At the moment the driest conditions are confined to northern Georgia, but with warmer conditions, they could start to spread again.  The early growth of plants this year in the spring-like weather has put extra demands on soil moisture, making dry conditions more likely.  Fortunately, the predictions for precipitation for the next few weeks looks promising, and statistically most of the next month should be wet.  After that, all bets are off since we are in neutral conditions and there is not much predictability on rainfall when we don’t have an El Niño or La Niña.

Based on the long-range forecasts, I expect to go back to a more typical temperature pattern in early March, although any sustained cold spells are unlikely.  For the later spring and summer and even into fall, I think the potential for above normal temperatures again this year is quite good.  As long as we get enough rain and the temperatures aren’t too extreme, that is probably not a bad thing.  The big wild-card this year is the current ENSO pattern.  We had a large El Niño last year, followed by a weak La Niña this winter, and now we are back in neutral conditions.  Climatologists are not sure what will happen this fall with the ENSO, but at the moment the models are suggesting a return to El Niño conditions by later in the summer.  If that would happen, that would mean fewer tropical storms, which could potentially mean drier conditions in the July-October period.  But a switch from El Niño to La Nina and back to El Niño right away has only happened once or twice since 1950, so some climatologists are dubious that it will really happen.  And the Climate Prediction Center is showing drier than normal conditions for next winter in the Southeast, which is more of a La Niña pattern than a typical El Niño winter pattern, so there are a lot of questions about what will really happen.  It won’t be until later this year that we really gain some confidence on the longer-term pattern.

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