David Zierden, the Florida State Climatologist, provides this analysis:
This spring has been exceptionally rainy for N. Florida and the Panhandle, and above normal for the rest of the State with the exception of south Florida. Daytona Beach is at 18.32 inches for the year since Jan. 1, 4.77 inches above normal. Wildfire risk and KBDI values are low for this time of year, except for extreme S. Florida. The summer rains should begin in time to ensure a very quiet wildfire season. For a map of KBDI values in Florida, visit https://flame.fl-dof.com/fire_weather/KBDI/index.html
With the current conditions, a little delay to the rainy season would not be harmful. In fact, farmers in N. Florida and the Panhandle have been on edge about getting a dry spell to finish (or start in some cases) their planting. This current dry spell has been just what they needed. Looking at weather forecast models, there is not much chance of rain for the next 7 days. Rain chances start to come back into play in week two according to some mid-range models. That being said, there is nothing to point to a delayed rainy season after that. El Nino is building in the Pacific and we are now looking at a 75% chance of El Nino in the next one to three months. However, El Nino has little impact on our summer rainy season. The rains and storminess associated with El Nino don’t really begin until October or November. El Nino will mean a less active hurricane season. NOAA will release their seasonal hurricane outlook today.
Miami NWS released their rainy season outlook yesterday that has a lot of good information in it. They are predicting a bit of a late start to the rainy season, but that is based primarily on the 1-2 week forecast.
